Monday, July 21, 2014

Barefoot Investor Email

Below is a email sent out by Scott Pape (Barefoot Investor & Channel 7 Finance commentator)

Makes some interesting points about Renting V's Buying, but also an interesting observation about how anyone who is critical of buying housing is attacked by Spruikers......


G'day .....,

 
I copped a bit of hate mail this week.

My crime?

I got on the telly and talked about a new report that suggested it was better to rent than buy.

Cue the crazies: there’s a lot of emotion when it comes to buying property. I think of it as a slightly less bogan version of the rivalry between Holden and Ford (or Kim and Kanye) and this week I managed to get both sides’ back up.

However, I was trumped by the normally poker-faced boffins at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). They rarely speculate on where house prices are going — they don’t have to, they influence prices by setting interest rate policy.

Yet this week the RBA released research that found that over the past 60 years there wasn’t much of a difference between renting and owning.

Okay, go back and read that last sentence again, just so you take it in. It sounds like bulldust, right?

After all, we’ve just lived through the mother of all housing booms — in which your parents bought their home 30 years ago for the cost of a Kia Rio and it’s now worth the same as a Rolls-Royce Phantom.

What gives?

Well, it all comes down to the costs of home ownership, which I’ll tackle in a moment (send your hate mail to scott@barefootinvestor.com). Yet the most intriguing part of the study was the RBA researchers suggesting that if property prices slow, “the average homebuyer would be financially better off renting”.

Boo-yah.

Reading between the lines, that’s a warning shot. The boffins are telling first home buyers to curb their expectations about the future riches they should expect from buying a bunch of bricks.

But let’s get back to the hate mail.

Renting Your Way to Riches

On the telly I interviewed one of Australia’s most respected and successful economists, Phil Ruthven, founder and chief of IBISWorld.

Ruthven’s a man of extraordinary intellect and insight, but what makes him especially interesting is that he made a conscious decision to rent his home.
Years ago he crunched the numbers and worked out he’d be streets ahead by selling his home and renting instead.

And here’s the kicker: Ruthven isn’t a doom and gloom merchant on property. (In fact, Ruthven is more optimistic about the future of property prices than I am.)

The reason Ruthven believes home ownership is a dud deal is because of the significant costs. He argues that rent money may well be dead money, but so too is interest.

Let’s say Phil saves up a $50,000 deposit and buys a $550,000 home. He takes out a $500,000 home-loan over 25 years and pays a (long-term average) 7 per cent interest rate.

Over the next 25 years he’ll end up paying more money in interest to the bank than he’ll pay to actually buy the home: the total repayments will be $1.06 million, including a whopping $563,000 in non-tax-deductible interest.

And it gets worse. That figure doesn’t factor in the significant out-of-pocket costs homeowners pay. It begins with stamp duty and legal fees, continues with the wear and tear on the property (which works out long term to be around 5 per cent of the value of the property each year) and ends with the selling costs.

On Ruthven’s calculations, if you were to buy an average home for $550,000, fifteen years later you could expect to sell it for a $350,000 profit -- after stripping away your many start-up, ongoing and selling costs. However, if you rented a similar home and invested the same amount in the share market, you’d come out with a $1.25 million profit over the same period.

Now before you get too carried away and rush out to sell your house, consider this: in all my time of being Barefoot I know only one person who has actually done this — Phil Ruthven.

For the rest of us, buying a home isn’t just a financial decision, it’s an emotional one. After all, it’s a place where you raise your family. It’s your castle. Personally, buying my first little apartment was one of the proudest moments of my life — and it beat the pants off any win I’ve ever had in the share market.

Kicking the Buckets

Let’s be honest: all forecasts on future prices are a guess — no-one has a crystal ball — but everyone has an opinion. Here’s mine.

As a (relatively) young person buying into one of the most expensive property markets on the planet, I went in with my eyes wide open: the last 20 years of boom-time gains are unlikely to match those of the next 20.

That’s because there was a significant structural shift that caused prices to boom: the banks were deregulated in the mid-80s, which led in part to the biggest borrowing binge in history. That ‘Get Out of Jail Free’ card has already been played by the Baby Boomers and I’m on the wrong side of the boom.

Either way, I’m a strong believer in home ownership, for all the reasons I’ve already listed. But here’s the real point: I’m wary of having all my eggs in the one basket — or bucket.

That’s why my wealth-building strategy focuses on dividing my income into three separate wealth buckets: a Blow Bucket (for daily expenses and mortgage repayments), a Mojo Bucket (for emergencies) and a Grow Bucket (for wealth-building through the share market).

Phil might argue that I’m getting a dud deal, but I see it as the best of both worlds.

Tread Your Own Path!


Wednesday, June 11, 2014

IMF says our Housing Costs Are Out Of Wack

Interesting story in The Australian 12-06-2014


House prices to income ratios.
House prices to income ratios. Source: TheAustralian
 
HOUSING is less affordable in Australia than in any other country except Belgium, the International Monetary Fund says, warning that rising prices might point to an unsustainable boom. 

The IMF is stepping up its analysis of housing markets around the world, having concluded that property booms and busts were implicated in two-thirds of the past 50 banking crises. “The era of benign neglect of housing booms is over,” deputy managing director Min Zhu said.

House prices, rents and incomes should, in theory, all move in tandem.

On this basis, the Australian real estate market is one of the most exposed in the world.

The ratio of prices to individual incomes is one-third more than its long-term average, the IMF estimates.

Canadian house prices are similarly inflated, while prices in Belgium are almost 50 per cent higher, relative to incomes, than average.

“In the long run, the price of houses cannot stray too far from people’s ability to afford them,” the IMF says. 

If ratios between house prices and rent get too far out of line, people will switch between buying and renting, eventually bringing the two into balance, it notes.

Presently, the ratio between house prices and rents is 50 per cent more than the long-term average in Australia.

Such indicators provide only a broad indication of housing market valuations, with issues such as credit growth, household indebtedness and the nature of housing finance in a country also having an effect.

The fund says there is no single indicator for when a housing market is set for a fall but if a range of indicators, such as credit growth and housing affordability, are all pointing to an overheated market, authorities should take action.

The IMF argues for regulatory intervention to slow house price booms, such as demanding that banks hold more capital against any housing loans, or imposing limits on how much people can borrow against the value of their house or their income.

The Reserve Bank has been sceptical about these strategies, arguing that regulation has limited effectiveness. If interest rates are too low, people will find ways to borrow excessively.

Monday, May 26, 2014

What We Earn is Not So Great Compared To What We Pay

Saw another great article on Microbusiness site that I thought was worthwhile sharing.

By Ross Elliott, author of The Pulse

Discussions about housing affordability focus almost exclusively on the price of the real estate, movements in which are monitored by multiple organisations on a seemingly daily basis. There is comparatively little discussion about people’s incomes, which are equally as important as prices in determining what can and can’t be reasonably afforded. The income profile of what most Australian’s actually earn paints a sobering picture which could more often be taken into account in debates about housing and affordability.

It’s becoming fashionable again for business lobbies to complain about Australia’s high wage structure. It explains, they’ll argue, why we lost Holden, Ford, Toyota, and (almost) Qantas, among other things. And yes, Australia’s wages are high by competitor standards – but so are our costs. One of the most fundamental of needs, along with food and clothing, is shelter. And it’s the cost of shelter relative to incomes which has been stretched to beyond reach for a large proportion of young Australians.

Reducing minimum wages or reducing wage growth further, if at the same time allowing housing costs to further escalate, will only make this situation worse. Arguably, if we could substantially reduce the cost of supplying new housing, this would relieve upward pressure on wages and work towards improving our global competitiveness – along with repairing living standards for working and middle class families, rather than eroding them.

First, here are some of the facts on the infrequently discussed income side of the equation. (I am again indebted to the team at Urban Economics for making these available. These are top line numbers only: if you want more detailed analysis, please contact Kerrianne Bonwick).
Nearly two in three of all Australians earn less than $52,000 per annum. It doesn’t much matter whether it’s Brisbane, Sydney or Melbourne; the proportion is roughly the same. It’s not much. Slightly more than another one in every eight earn from $52,000 to $78,000 per annum. Roughly eight in ten Australians earn less than $78,000 per annum.

ScreenHunter_2558 May. 23 10.38

Problem? It is if you’re trying to buy into the housing market. Take a modest house of say $400,000 (very modest depending on location). A worker on $50,000 – and these represent nearly two thirds of all workers remember – is facing a price multiple which is 8 times their gross pre-tax income.

Basically, two thirds of us are stuffed in terms of affording even a modest $400,000 property if we weren’t already in the market. A more reasonable price multiple of say 5 times income would require an income of $80,000 per annum or more. But there are less than 15% of Australians who fit this category.

But wait, shouldn’t we count household, as opposed to personal, incomes? A good point, particularly for younger families and young couples, where dual incomes are the norm due to necessity.
But even based on combined household incomes, a third of all households earn less than $52,000 per annum. Another 14% to 15% earn between $52,000 and $78,000 and another 11% or 12% earn between $78,000 and $104,000. A reasonably healthy 30% of all households bring in a combined $104,000 per annum or more, but seven in ten bring in less than that.

Taking our modest $400,000 home again, and roughly half of all household incomes fall short of the $80,000 mark required for a price-to-income multiple of five. For one in three of every households, their combined income means a price to income multiple of eight times. They are pretty much stuffed, still.

ScreenHunter_2559 May. 23 10.40


Hang on, isn’t it more relevant to focus on the demographic that’s more likely to be trying to get into the property market, because older people and retirees, who already own or are paying off homes, may skew the figures? Absolutely: this is the key demographic, especially if you’re a developer of new detached housing product – which is what this cohort mainly wants to buy to raise a family in (as opposed to the apartment they might rent while pre-children).

Personal income profiles of the 25-34 year old age group are pretty much in line with the Australia wide picture. More than half earn less than $52,000 and roughly eight in ten earn less than $78,000 per annum, which means eight in ten of this age group – who are at the peak of their family formation potential – would be faced with a price multiple of more than 5 times incomes on a $400,000 property, and more than half would be faced with a price multiple which is eight times their income, or more.

ScreenHunter_2560 May. 23 10.41

None of this is great news. For developers trying to provide affordable new housing in new greenfield estates in urban fringe locations, the reality of these income profiles can’t be escaped. I had the privilege of visiting one such estate in south east Queensland recently and what I saw was absolutely first class product at very good entry level prices in a very well designed environment. No ‘McMansions’ here – just quality new detached three and four bedroom homes, on small lots, priced from around $350,000 – and in some cases less.

But even at $350,000, only around 15% or so of the target 25 to 34 year old demographic could afford to get in with a price multiple of less than 5 times an individual’s income. That proportion would rise taking into account combined incomes for this age group, but it won’t rise beyond around a quarter or a third. The reality is that more than half this age group would find an entry level $350,000 home would be six times their combined incomes or more. It would be tough going.
Granted, interest rates are currently very low and some governments are offering stamp duty and other concessions to first time buyers. But these are having next to no impact on this market. Rates of first home buyer activity are at generational lows. And interest rates won’t stay this low forever. A significant rise in variable home loan rates could tip a substantial number of families in this age group from the ‘just making it’ basket into the ‘we’re stuffed’ basket.

Since the ‘do nothing’ policy approach doesn’t seem to be working, what could be done to turn the situation around? Basically, it’s a simple formula between incomes and prices. You either increase incomes or reduce prices. The first probably isn’t an option unless incomes can gradually creep up with inflation and with productivity gains over time.

But what could also happen is the cost of supplying new housing (not referring to existing stock) could be reduced. New housing is heavily taxed and over regulated (the same cannot be said of existing stock). Something like a quarter to a third of the cost of the new home in an urban fringe location is due entirely to various taxes, charges and compliance costs (which do not apply to existing stock). It is also affected by the rapid escalation in land costs due to policy induced supply constraints in areas of ample available land (the same can’t be said of existing stock in mostly built-out inner or middle ring areas). Most of these additional costs of supply owe themselves to policy changes made since the early 2000s – precisely the time when the affordability gap began to widen. It does seem a compelling place to start.

We should aspire to a more competitive Australia but this policy effort cannot just focus on labour costs because our incomes, while high by competitor standards, are now generally insufficient to cover one of the basic necessities of life: shelter. We have made this happen because policy makers have deliberately increased the cost of delivering new housing with new taxes, charges and compliance costs, all justified on esoteric planning or sustainability principles but impossible to justify on social equity or economic grounds.

These policy changes were made to suit political agendas at the time: they were not needs-based or market-based policy changes. (It also has to be said the political agendas at the time were in the hands of Labor State governments, starting with Bob Carr in NSW but which spread rapidly to other jurisdictions. Why Labor Governments introduced policies which hurt people on working wages is as mystifying to me as why Liberal Governments have continued to maintain the same policy positions, with little amendment).

The gap between the cost of supplying even relatively basic housing on the urban fringe, and the incomes of the people who in past generations could afford it, will continue to widen unless regulators and policy makers begin to grasp the wider economic consequences of policy-inflated costs for new housing supply.

Footnote: why a five times multiple? There is no strong reason. The authors of the global housing affordability report Demographia will argue that affordable housing should be around three times incomes. Moderately unaffordable they define as between 3 and 4, and between 4 and 5 is defined as ‘seriously unaffordable.’ The multiples of 7 or 8 times incomes, which we’re seeing in Australia, are off the scale. But for the purpose of argument, if even relatively high (by international standards) multiples of 5 times incomes seems like a utopian dream, it illustrates how far incomes need to rise or costs of new supply should fall before we get even close to the situation that prevailed for most of our history. It’s a big challenge.

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

The cold truth about hot property prices

Another great article on Property prices that I came across well worth a read.

The cold truth about hot property prices


Job security may be of increasing concern for many Australians, but you would never know it looking at investor activity. Has there ever been a greater divide between the outlook for prospective home buyers and investors?
First home buyers may be pessimistic but the investor-fuelled housing boom continued to roll on in December. It was business as usual, with the value of housing loans to investors rising by 2.9 per cent in December to be more than 40 per cent higher over the year.
The increase in investor activity, particularly in New South Wales, has been largely unprecedented in Australia, with lending well above its historical levels. Owner-occupier activity on the other hand has increased significantly, but is still well below prior peaks when you consider population growth.

Graph for The cold truth about hot property prices
A leading reason for this is that first home buyer activity remains at an exceptionally low level. Despite historically low mortgage rates – which have prompted investor speculation – the benefits have not accrued to prospective homeowners.
Renters are more concerned with job security than leveraging up during uncertain times. And who could blame them, particularly with full-time employment declining over the past year? I would go so far as to say that the Australian labour market hasn’t been this weak in over a decade (There’s no silver lining in Australia’s ageing labour market, January 16).
In such an environment, how long can this housing boom last? That is always difficult to pinpoint but it is disconcerting to note that owner-occupiers also appear to be becoming a little less optimistic. The number of loan approvals by existing homeowners has slowed across most states in recent months, in sharp contrast to investor activity.

Graph for The cold truth about hot property prices
What should be clear is that the current make-up of Australian lending is not conducive to sustainable house price growth. Investors are notoriously fickle and, if their optimism fades, then the market will turn – and quickly.
Compounding matters is that Australian housing hasn’t exactly been a great investment in recent years. Sydney house prices, for example, have increased by 0.8 per cent over the past decade after accounting for inflation. Real prices have declined in Perth over the past seven years.
Even Melbourne, the best-performing housing market since the onset of the global financial crisis, has offered only a modest return on investment since 2008.

Graph for The cold truth about hot property prices
How long can investors ignore the fact that Australian housing has not offered more than a short-term speculative profit in years? And when they do, what will happen? Similar profits could be obtained with term deposits. Surely there are overseas property markets that offer superior returns if property investment is your thing.
No one can pinpoint the exact moment that Australia’s $5 trillion housing market will slow. Speculators who think they can are playing a pretty risky game.
A decade ago, the Sydney market showed what could happen when a market becomes completely dominated by investors at the expense of other home buyers. When investor optimism subsided in 2004, it took a decade for Sydney's real house prices to return to their peak. That may not happen again, but it should provide a sober reminder than housing investment isn’t always a good investment.
Low interest rates will continue to support the Australian housing market but it has become increasingly obvious that the current housing boom is being driven by unsustainable speculative activity.
In the long run, house prices will be driven by labour market conditions and demographic changes – two factors that are set to work against house price growth. How long will it take investors to cotton on to the fact that Australian housing has not been a great investment in years?

Sunday, January 19, 2014

Saul Eslake Slams Australian Housing Policy.

 Another great article on Housing Policy gone wrong in Australia well worth a read to understand the real issues impacting housing affordability.

Saul Eslake slams Australian housing policy

ScreenHunter_924 Jan. 20 12.17
By Leith van Onselen
The AFR is today reporting that Saul Eslake, who has held multiple chief economist roles at various banks, as well as acted on the National Housing Supply Council, has provided a personal submission to a Senate Inquiry into Affordable Housing.  The submission, entitled ‘50 years of failure’, provides a damning assessment of Australian housing policy, claiming that government self interest has led to the worst affordability problem since the end of World War II:
“Politics – more than any other single factor – means that Australians are likely to have to live with a dysfunctional housing system for a long time yet to come,” Mr Eslake said.
Government policies including cash assistance to first-time home buyers and negative gearing had only served to inflate the demand for housing whilst doing next to nothing to increase the supply and therefore made affordability worse, he said…
While political parties and governments professed to care about first home buyers, the reality was that they preferred to garner the votes of the 5.8 million households who sought policies that would increase house values.
Presumably, Mr Eslake’s submission to the Senate Inquiry is the same one as presented to the 122nd Annual Henry George Commemorative Dinner, hosted by Prosper Australia, last September. This presentation was summarised on this blog, and below are extracts taken directly from that post explaining Eslake’s position.
________________________________________________________________________________________
Consider the next chart showing how the home ownership rate has decreased over the past 50 years, despite the massive decline in interest rates and subsidies to first home buyers (FHBs):
ScreenHunter_39 Sep. 03 10.37
Moreover, home ownership has fallen across all age cohorts, although the decline has been particularly severe amongst younger cohorts:
ScreenHunter_40 Sep. 03 10.40
According to Eslake:
…the decline in home ownership has been even more pronounced when one ‘looks through’ the effects of the ageing of the population, which (among other things) means that an increasing proportion of the population is within age groups where home ownership rates are always (and for obvious reasons) higher than in younger age cohorts…
Research by Judy Yates of the University of NSW shows that home ownership rates among younger age groups declined dramatically between the 1991 and 2011 Censuses – from 56% to 47% among 25-34 year olds; from 75% to 64% among 35-44 year olds; from 81% to 73% among 45-54 year olds; and 84% to 79% among those over 55…
This is also evident in the fact that home owners are taking longer to pay off their mortgages. According to the ABS’ just-released Survey of Housing Occupancy and Costs (ABS 2013b), only 45.8% of home-owning households owned their home outright in 2011-12, compared with 58.5% in 1994-95.
Eslake also showed how the supply of housing has become increasingly constipated since the 1990s in the face of rising demand, in concert with urban containment policies by Australia’s various state and territory governments:
…between 1976 and 1991, the housing stock increased at a much faster rate – 41% – than the population – 23% – although only 9% of dwelling completions during this period were by the public sector.
But the relationship between growth in the housing stock and population growth began to change after the early 1990s. Between 1991 and 2001, Australia’s population grew by 11.5%, while the housing stock grew by only 18.3% – less than 9 pc points more than the population.
And between 2001 and 2011, while the population grew by 15.9%, the housing stock grew by only 15.2%. That is, over the past decade, the housing stock has grown at a slower rate than the population – for the first time since the end of World War II.
This gradual narrowing in the ‘gap’ between the growth rate of the housing stock and that of the population – to the point of eliminating it entirely over the past decade – has come in the face of demographic trends that would have warranted a widening of this gap:
  • average family sizes declined between the early 1960s and the early 1990s, implying that more dwellings are required to accommodate the same number of people;
  • family breakdowns have meant that more dwellings are required to accommodate the same number of people; and
  • population ageing has resulted in more people living alone, again increasing the number of dwellings required to accommodate the same number of people.
Yet, in the face of these ongoing trends, the average number of people per dwelling actually rose (from 2.61 to 2.64) between the 2006 and 2011 Censuses – for the first time in at least 100 years (since the first Commonwealth Census was conducted in 1911 – see Chart 3). From 1911 to 2006, the average number of people per dwelling had fallen from 4.52 to 2.61. It would seem that the widespread angst among ‘baby boomer’ parents about how difficult it is to get their 20- (and in some cases 30-) something children out of the family home has a sound basis in fact.
ScreenHunter_41 Sep. 03 10.49
Eslake puts the recent failure of housing supply to keep up with demand down to two main factors, namely:
  • The decline in the provision of social housing; and
  • Restrictive state and local government planning schemes and upfront charging for development and infrastructure.
Eslake is particularly scathing of policies that boost demand, such as FHB Grants and negative gearing.
FHB Grants began in the 1960s and have been cancelled and then re-introduced a number of times ever since. According to Eslake, governments have spent a total of around $22.5 billion in grants in 2010-11 values over the past 50 years, yet homewonership rates have not increased over this period. They provide minimal benefit to FHBs, acting to inflate values for the benefit of vendors. In this regard, they have been a massive failure, although the recent shift towards newly constructed dwellings is a significant policy improvement.
ScreenHunter_42 Sep. 03 11.01
On negative gearing, Eslake noted that it has “actually exacerbated the mis-match between the demand for and the supply of housing, as well as having distorted the allocation of capital, and undermined the equity and integrity of the income tax system”.
Australia is one of only a few developed nations that allow negative gearing, which was made all the worse by the Howard Government’s 1999 decision to tax capital gains at half the rate applicable to other income (instead of taxing inflation-adjusted capital gains at a taxpayer’s full marginal rate). Thus negative gearing became “a vehicle for permanently reducing, as well as deferring, personal tax liabilities. And the availability of depreciation on buildings adds to the way in which ‘negative gearing’ converts ordinary income taxable at full rates into capital gains taxable at half rates”. As such, it has also become increasing popular:
ScreenHunter_43 Sep. 03 11.06
Eslake sees no policy rationale for negative gearing. It costs taxpayers a fortune – roughly $5 billion in revenue foregone. It does nothing to increase the supply of housing – “92% of all borrowing by residential property investors over the past decade has been for the purchase of established dwellings, as against about 72% of all borrowing by owner-occupiers”. It increases investor demand and prices. And it does nothing to improve rental availability or affordability.
As for common arguments in favour of negative gearing:
Supporters of ‘negative gearing’ argue that its abolition would lead to a ‘landlord’s strike’, driving up rents and exacerbating the existing shortage of affordable rental housing. They repeatedly point to what they allege happened when the Hawke Government abolished negative gearing (only for property investment) in 1986 – that it ‘led’ (so they say) to a surge in rents, which prompted the reintroduction of ‘negative gearing’ in 1988.
This assertion is actually not true. If the abolition of ‘negative gearing’ had led to a ‘landlord’s strike’, as proponents of ‘negative gearing’ repeatedly assert, then rents should have risen everywhere (since ‘negative gearing’ had been available everywhere). In fact, rents (as measured in the consumer price index) only rose rapidly (at double-digit rates) in Sydney and Perth – and that was because in those two cities, rental vacancy rates were unusually low (in Sydney’s case, barely above 1%) before negative gearing was abolished. In other State capitals (where vacancy rates were higher), growth in rentals was either unchanged or, in Melbourne, actually slowed (see Chart 7).
ScreenHunter_44 Sep. 03 11.12
However, notwithstanding this history, suppose that a large number of landlords were to respond to the abolition of ‘negative gearing’ by selling their properties. That would push down the prices of investment properties, making them more affordable to would-be home buyers, allowing more of them to become home-owners, and thereby reducing the demand for rental properties in almost exactly the same proportion as the reduction in the supply of them. It’s actually quite difficult to think of anything that would do more to improve affordability conditions for would-be homebuyers than the abolition of ‘negative gearing’.
Eslake also notes that there is no evidence to support the claim that negative gearing results in more rental housing being available that would otherwise be the case:
Most other ‘advanced’ economies don’t have ‘negative gearing’: yet most other countries have higher rental vacancy rates than Australia does.
ScreenHunter_45 Sep. 03 11.15
In the United States, which hasn’t allow ‘negative gearing’ since the mid-1980s, the rental vacancy rate has in the last 50 years only once been below 5% (and that was in the March quarter of 1979); in the ten years prior to the onset of the most recent recession, it has averaged 9.1% (see Chart 8 above).
Yet here in Australia, which does allow ‘negative gearing’, the rental vacancy rate has never (at least in the last 30 years) been above 5%, and in the period since ‘negative gearing’ became more attractive (as a result of the halving of the capital gains tax rate) has fallen from over 3% to less than 2%.
During that same period, rents rose at rate 0.8 percentage points per annum faster than the CPI as a whole; whereas over the preceding decade, rents rose at exactly the same rate as the CPI.
Similarly, countries which have never had ‘negative gearing’ – such as Germany, France, the Netherlands, the Nordic countries and (low-tax) Switzerland – have much larger private rental markets than Australia.
Eslake also debunked claims that removing negative gearing would create distortions in the tax system:
Some supporters of negative gearing also argue that since businesses can deduct all of the operating expenses they incur (including interest) against their profits in order to determine their taxable income, and can also ‘carry forward’ net losses incurred in any given year against profits earned in subsequent years so as to reduce the tax otherwise payable, it is only ‘fair and reasonable’ that investors should be able to do the same.
There are two flaws in this argument, in my view. First, a large part of the appeal of ‘negative gearing’ comes from the way in which it allows income which would otherwise have been taxed at the investor’s marginal rate effectively to be converted into capital gains, which are taxed at half the investor’s marginal rate. Businesses – if they are incorporated, as most businesses these days are – can’t do that. Companies aren’t eligible for the 50% discount on tax payable on gains on assets held for more than one year.
Second, while individuals are allowed to deduct expenses incurred in connection with producing investment income from their taxable income, they aren’t allowed to deduct many types of expenses incurred in producing wage and salary income.
To take an obvious example, wage and salary earners aren’t allowed to deduct the cost of travelling to and from work; nor are they allowed to deduct child care expenses.
Or, to take another example which may be an even closer analogy with ‘negative gearing’ for investment purposes, individuals aren’t allowed to deduct interest on borrowings undertaken to finance their own education as a tax deduction, even though that additional education may contribute materially to enhancing their future earnings – and even though any such additional future earnings will be taxed at that individual’s full marginal rate, as opposed to half that rate in the case of capital gains on an investment asset.
Finally, Eslake finished by offering seven key policy reforms to improve the functioning of the housing market:
The fundamental change that such a set of policies might embody would be a switch from policies which inflate the demand for housing to policies which boost the supply of housing. Such a suite of policies might include some or all of the following.
First, the abolition of all existing policies which serve only to increase the prices of existing dwellings, such as cash grants to and stamp duty exemptions for first time buyers, and ‘negative gearing’ for investors (in all assets, not just property, and if politically necessary, only for assets acquired after the date on which such a policy was announced);
Second, the redirection of the funds thereby saved (and/or the additional revenue raised) towards programs that increase the supply of housing – for example, by directly funding the construction of new dwellings (as the Rudd Government did as part of its response to the global financial crisis), or by providing some combination of grants, loans or tax incentives to induce private sector developers to increase the proportion of ‘affordable’ dwellings within their developments, whether for sale or rental;
Third, expanding or replicating programs like Western Australia’s ‘Keystart’ scheme which assist eligible people to become home owners on a ‘shared equity’ basis, with eligibility being subject to a means test, and which creates a ‘revolving fund’ as the ‘shared equity’ is returned to the State Government upon sale;
Fourth, changes to the way in which State and Territory Governments tax holdings of and transactions in land, with a view to encouraging more efficient use of it. That would include replacing stamp duty on land transfers (which are ‘bad’ taxes on many grounds, including that they discourage people from changing their dwellings as their needs change) with more broadly-based land taxes (ie, no exemptions for owner-occupiers, but with appropriate transitional provisions) and possibly higher rates for undeveloped vacant land in established urban areas;
Fifth, taking a more ‘holistic’ view of urban infrastructure investment, by recognizing that it has an important housing dimension – that is, that public (or private) investment in transport infrastructure (both public transport and roads) can make a tangible contribution towards improving housing supply and affordability by making ‘greenfields’ developments more accessible to both buyers and renters – and considering funding such infrastructure by levies on the increments to the value of the land which result from such investments (as for example with the levy that funded the Melbourne Underground Rail Loop Authority in the 1970s and early 1980s);
Sixth, revisiting current models for financing the provision of infrastructure and services in ‘greenfields’ housing estates with a view to reducing the extent to which these are funded by ‘upfront’ charges (something which could be assisted by changes to the land tax regime which I mentioned a moment ago); and
Seventh, reducing the cost, complexity and regulatory uncertainty associated with ‘brownfields’ and ‘infill’ developments in established areas – which doesn’t have to mean traducing the property rights of other property owners, but which should mean clearer and more uniform planning rules, with fewer opportunities for frivolous or vexatious objections and appeals.
unconventionaleconomist@hotmail.com

Monday, October 28, 2013

Daddy's Girl

People might recall a story I did some time back about Dugan the 26 year old Diesel mechanic who needed Mummys help to get into the housing market. {A Market he has no right to be in}

Well further down is a story about a 23 year old UNI-Student in Sydney who in Oct 2013 is buying a house for over a MILLION DOLLARS !!!!! ....

WTF is a "Uni-Student" only 23 years old doing buying a $1M Plus home but worse still she paid $120K above the asking price with the help of her parents.

Not her money or her ability to borrow that much money drove prices up & out the reach of real buyers but her parents money.

This 23 year old Uni-Student also has no place in the housing market yet is able to get a toehold & force others to compete with her.

Some family missed out on a home because this "UNI-Student" through her Mum & Dad ganged up on them and invested their money into property via their daughter. Tax Free Capital growth here to be made.

Just remember this is what is driving up house prices not real market forces & real buyers with real money
On one of the biggest auction days Sydney and Melbourne have seen came more evidence of the grim truth facing Australia’s young home buyers: in our inner cities, there’s often little hope without parents’ help…
In red-hot inner-city Surry Hills, first-home buyer Claudia Crause, 23, a student at the University of NSW, snapped up a two-bedroom terrace at 45 Rainford Street, Surry Hills, for $1,094,000, $119,000 over the $975,000 reserve.
‘‘The market’s a bit hot at the moment. There’s a lot of people wanting terraces with potential,’’ Ms Crause said.
‘‘Prices are going up … I think we got a pretty good deal’’…Parents Ron and Theresa Crause, of Mosman, were happy to help…

ScreenHunter_16 Oct. 28 11.14
The auction at 45 Rainford Street, Surry Hills.
Claudia Crause

Claudia Crause Law student




On Linked in Claudia says she is studying Law at UNSW & works as a "Medical Receptionist" to pay the bill yet can splash out $1m plus for a Swanky Pad Medical Reception work pays less than $50K PA so how is she able to do it? ..... Sorry   Claudia you have a couple more years to go & when you graduate it will dawn on you that half the graduates from years before are unable to get places in law & even then will take 3-5 years before getting decent pay.

Assuming "Claudia's"  home was purchased with a 10% deposit, leaving principal of $1,030,260 to be repaid (i.e $984,600 plus $45,660 in stamp duty). At the current 5.1% discount variable mortgage rate, Ms Crause (or her parents) would be required to make loan repayments of $1,290 per week, or around $67,000 per year.
Let’s hope that Ms Crause is studying brain surgery, as otherwise she could be looking at a lifetime of debt serfdom.

Real Buyers with Real Money that were competing with this 23 year old student had to save a 10% deposit after years working in the workforce.

Our Daddys girl @ the age of 23 & studying full time at UNI has not done this & would not be able to afford the payment or cost of ownership even if she did.  Don't forget the $1300pw repayment cost excludes Insurance / Rates / Maintenance etc which would make it closer to $1600 pw .....

Now when interests rates start to go North & they will because they cannot stay at these levels forever!! This little Daddy's Girl will be paying $2-$2500 PW for something she can currently rent for $600-$700pw

BTW I am not FORECASTING what interest rates will or wont be I am pointing out the FACT that historically rates have averaged 8.5-9% PA over the last 30 years this is almost twice what they are today & when they do lets see the smiles on their faces.

Look all said & done will the Housing Dream for our children  have to be achieved by all of us parents digging into our retirement savings to help them get a foot on the so called "Property Ladder". What happens if you have 2-3-4 kids which one do you pick to help?

Australian house prices are going up because fools like these have every faith that nothing will stop it , scratch beneath the surface & was there a real buyer for this property who could afford it on their own merits?








Tuesday, September 3, 2013

50 Years of Housing Failure

Recent article by a respected economist. Well worth a read.

 

Saul Eslake: 50 Years of Housing Failure


SAUL EASLAKE1
Address to the 122nd Annual Henry George Commemorative Dinner
The Royal Society of Victoria, Melbourne
2nd, September 2013
by Saul Eslake


Introduction

I appreciate very much the opportunity to talk to you at the 122nd Annual Henry George Commemorative Dinner.
Henry George was one of the more innovative economic thinkers of the 19th century, and it is in some ways a pity that his work is not better known among those who do know at least a little of the history of economic thought, as that of some of his contemporaries such as John Stuart Mill, William Stanley Jevons, or Alfred Marshall still is today.
I first ran across him when I was studying Australian History at Year 12, and focusing in particular on the Great Depression of the 1890s. I learned then that George’s advocacy of a single tax on the unimproved value of all privately-held land had found favour with sections of the then newly-emerging Australian labour movement.
Perhaps for that reason, those Australians who have actually heard of Henry George usually place him on the left of the political spectrum. Yet that is a gross over-simplification. He was also a strident advocate of restrictions on Asian immigration – as was the Australian Labor Party in its early days, and indeed right up until the 1960s – although these days, that is a position usually associated with the extreme right. Like most other economists, he was concerned about the existence and exploitation of monopoly power. And, also like most other economists, in his time and today, he was an advocate of free trade, pointing out that tariffs are not something that foreigners pay to get their goods into the country which imposes them, but rather something that a country’s government makes its own citizens pay in order to keep foreigners’ goods out: or, as he put it, “it is not from foreigners that protections preserves and defends us: it is from ourselves” (George 1905: 45-46).
Nor is the advocacy of a greater role for the taxation of land in taxation systems an exclusively left-of-centre position. Adam Smith, commonly if not entirely accurately regarded as the father of “laissez faire”, proposed what he called ‘ground rents’ as ‘a proper subject of taxation’ a century before Henry George (Smith 1776: Book V, Chapter 2). Milton Friedman – who in no sense could be characterized as being anywhere near left-of-centre (notwithstanding his principled advocacy of the decriminalization of drug use) – once said that, in his opinion “the least bad tax is the property tax on the unimproved value of land, the Henry George argument of many, many years ago” (Friedman 1978). The Economist – the antithesis of a ‘socialist rag’ – earlier this year stated that “taxing land and property is one of the most efficient and least distorting ways for governments to raise money”, citing an OECD study suggesting that “taxes on immovable property are the most growth-friendly of all taxes” (Economist 2013: 70).
The Henry Review of the Australian taxation system concluded that “land is an efficient tax base because it is immobile; unlike labour and capital, it cannot move to escape tax” and that “economic growth would be higher if governments raised more revenue from land and less revenue from other tax bases” (Henry 2009: 247). Henry George would have been pleased.
All of this notwithstanding, very few economists – and I am not one of them – would today accept that it would be either possible, or even if it were possible, desirable, for a land tax to be the sole source of government revenue, as Henry George advocated. He was writing at a time when government revenue requirements were substantially smaller than they are today; and when it was far less likely than it is today that people could be ‘asset rich but income poor’. But there is still a very sound case for the taxation of land to play a greater role in raising revenue for public purposes than it does today.

Housing policy: a half-century of policy failure

Housing is important. It meets a variety of deeply personal needs, including those for shelter and (ideally) security. It provides a sense of attachment (the place where we live) and, for many people, contributes to their sense of identity. These are pretty basic needs for almost all of us, as human beings. In addition, for many people, it is an important means of building wealth (and often the most important one); and for some, it provides the foundation for starting a business.
In Australia, most of us are well-housed – at least in a physical sense. Although it hasn’t always been the case, and it isn’t the case for all Australians today (not least for Indigenous people), most of us live in houses or apartments that are well-constructed, amply fitted with various devices that make the accomplishment of household tasks easier than it was in our great-grandparents’ day, and replete with other appurtenances and chattels that in some way or other provide us with enjoyment or add meaning to our lives.
That isn’t the case in many other parts of the world. In July, I spent a week in Madagascar, which according to the IMF is the sixth-poorest country in the world, measured in terms of purchasing-power-parity per capita GDP. It ranks 151st (out of 186 countries) on the United Nations latest Human Development Index. People in Madagascar are not, in general, well housed. From my own observation, outside of the capital, Antananarivo, most people in Madagascar live in wooden or mud-brick huts that, in many cases, are smaller than the lounge room of a typical new Australian house, with roofs made of thatch, and in many cases without glazed windows. It puts our housing issues into a different perspective.
Reflecting the importance of housing to people’s well-being, as well as to many broader objectives, Australian Governments of all political persuasions have long purported to attach a great deal of significance to goals such as promoting home ownership, improving housing affordability, and increasing housing supply.
And, once upon a time, Australian Governments did actually pursue policies that promoted those objectives (see Charts 1 and 2):
  • between 1947 and 1961, the housing stock increased by 50% -compared with a 41% increase in Australia’s population over this period. The Commonwealth and State Governments directly contributed 221,700, or 24% of the total increase in the housing stock over this period, through programs financed under the Commonwealth-State Housing Agreements, or under the War and Defence Service Homes Schemes.
  • during this period, the home ownership rate increased from 53.4% to 70.3% -the largest increase in home ownership in Australia’s history.
  • between 1961 and 1976, the housing stock increased by a further 46% -again outstripping the 33% increase in Australia’s population over this period. During this period, the Commonwealth and State Governments directly added a further 299,000 dwellings to the housing stock, equivalent to 23% of the increase in the total housing stock over this period.
    during this period, the home ownership rate fluctuated between 68% and 71%, but remained at a high level by international standards.
In other words, during this period, Federal and State Government housing policies were principally directed towards increasing the supply of housing, and at increasing or maintaining home ownership rates. And these policies actually achieved those objectives.
Chart 1: Growth in the population and housing stock, 1947-2011
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Chart 2: Home Ownership rates accelerated post WW2
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Chart 3: Home ownership rates at Censuses, 1947-2011
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There were downsides to these policies, of course – in particular, many of the dwellings built by State housing authorities, and by the private sector, were poorly located from the standpoint of access to employment, lacked basic infrastructure and community services, and inadvertently served to concentrate socio-economic disadvantage. But they did ensure that a rapidly-growing population was at least adequately housed, and they gave many families an opportunity to gain a first foothold on the home ownership ladder that they would otherwise not have had.
Even between 1976 and 1991, the housing stock increased at a much faster rate – 41% than the population – 23% -although only 9% of dwelling completions during this period were by the public sector.
But the relationship between growth in the housing stock and population growth began to change after the early 1990s. Between 1991 and 2001, Australia’s population grew by 11.5% , while the housing stock grew by only 18.3% -less than 9 pc points more than the population. And between 2001 and 2011, while the population grew by 15.9%, the housing stock grew by only 15.2%. That is, over the past decade, the housing stock has grown at a slower rate than the population – for the first time since the end of World War II.
This gradual narrowing in the ‘gap’ between the growth rate of the housing stock and that of the population – to the point of eliminating it entirely over the past decade – has come in the face of demographic trends that would have warranted a widening of this gap:
  • average family sizes declined between the early 1960s and the early 1990s, implying that more dwellings are required to accommodate the same number of people;
  • family breakdowns have meant that more dwellings are required to accommodate the same number of people; and
  • population ageing has resulted in more people living alone, again increasing the number of dwellings required to accommodate the same number of people.
Yet, in the face of these ongoing trends, the average number of people per dwelling actually rose (from 2.61 to 2.64) between the 2006 and 2011 Censuses – for the first time in at least 100 years (since the first Commonwealth Census was conducted in 1911 – see Chart 3). From 1911 to 2006, the average number of people per dwelling had fallen from 4.52 to 2.61. It would seem that the widespread angst among ‘baby boomer’ parents about how difficult it is to get their 20-(and in some cases 30-) something children out of the family home has a sound basis in fact.
Chart 4: Average number of people per dwelling at Censuses, 1911-2011
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This is what the National Housing Supply Council, of which I’m a member, means when it estimates that Australia has a ‘shortage’ of housing relative to the ‘underlying’ demand for it – a shortage which it last estimated to be of the order of 228,000 dwellings as at 30 June 2011 (NHSC 2012: 24-25).
That 228,000 figure is not an estimate of the number of homeless people in Australia (which the ABS put at just over 105,000, a number which included 41,390 people living in ‘severely overcrowded’ dwellings, at the 2011 Census – ABS 2012). Rather, it reflects the gap between the existing housing stock, and what the Council estimates the stock would need to be if household formation patterns had remained essentially unchanged over the past decade.
In passing, I should note that these estimates pre-date the results of the 2011 Census, which has resulted in some downward revisions to the estimated level of Australia’s population compared with those which had been based on extrapolations from the 2006 Census, and which will lead to some consequential revisions to these estimates of the housing ‘shortage’.
However, it would be a mistake to think – as some other commentators have – that the revisions prompted by the 2011 Census results have eliminated the ‘housing shortage’ which the National Housing Supply Council and others had previously identified (see NHSC 2013: 107-123).
Nor, in my view, is the idea that there is a ‘housing shortage’ in the sense intended by the NHSC contradicted by the work that Philip Soos has undertaken for Earthsharing Australia, using data from Melbourne water suppliers to show that up to 6% of residential properties across the Melbourne metropolitan area may have been vacant during the second half of 2011 (Soos 2012).
If those vacant properties aren’t available (for whatever reason) for sale or rent then their existence does not detract from the existence of a housing shortage – although it may well be, as Philip argues, that an increase in land tax could prompt at least some of the owners of those properties to make them available for sale or rent.
I think there are two principal reasons for the increasing failure of the stock of housing to grow at a rate commensurate with the growth rate (and changing needs) of the population:
First, the direct contribution of the public sector to growing the housing stock has declined substantially. From the mid-1950s to the mid-1970s, public sector agencies completed an average of 15,512 new dwellings per annum (and they indirectly financed the completion of another 3,600 dwellings annually through low-interest loan schemes). From the mid-1970s to the early 1990s, they completed an average of 12,379 new dwellings per annum. But since then, they have completed an average of less than 6,000 new dwellings per annum (indeed between 1999 and 2009 the public sector built fewer than 4,000 new dwellings per annum, on average).
Second, state and local government planning schemes and policies for charging for the provision of suburban infrastructure have made it increasingly difficult for the private sector to supply new housing, especially at the more affordable end of the spectrum.
This second reason has three distinct dimensions.
First, state and local authorities have imposed increasingly more onerous requirements on developers for the provision of infrastructure and services in new housing estates. While that undoubtedly represents ‘progress’ in many respects – and certainly adds to the amenity of ‘greenfields’ developments from the perspective of those who move into them – it comes at a cost.
Second, local authorities have changed the way in which this infrastructure and these services are provided, from a model based on paying for them largely through debt, which was then serviced and repaid out of subsequent increases in rate revenues, to one based on paying for them through ‘up front charges’ on developers.
While this is consistent with a ‘user pays’ philosophy, and appeases the growing voter aversion to public debt, it has meant (especially in New South Wales, where developer charges have risen to much higher levels than in other States) that developers find it increasingly difficult to produce house-and-land packages at prices which are affordable for first-time buyers and still make a profit, so they have reacted by building a smaller number of more expensive houses targeted at the trade-up market.
Third, metropolitan planning authorities and inner-city local governments have made it increasingly more time-consuming and onerous to undertake higher-density or ‘infill’ developments on ‘brownfields’ sites – in particular by imposing tighter planning controls, and by providing more opportunities for objections to and appeals against planning decisions.
As with the more onerous requirements for infrastructure provision in ‘greenfields’ sites, there are two sides to this story, and I have a lot of sympathy with the desire of residents in established areas to prevent developments which detract materially from their quality of life (and/or from the value of their properties). But whatever perspective one might take on that debate, there is no doubt that developments in planning law have contributed to the mismatch between housing demand and housing supply.
What is also noticeable about the last twenty years is that – despite mortgage interest rates having been substantially lower, on average, over this period (7.59% pa over the past 20 years, compared with 11.95% over the preceding 20), and despite unprecedented expenditure on grants to first home buyers – the overall home ownership rate has actually declined by 5 percentage points, to 67% at the 2011 Census, its lowest figure since the 1954 Census.
In fact the decline in home ownership has been even more pronounced when one ‘looks through’ the effects of the ageing of the population, which (among other things) means that an increasing proportion of the population is within age groups where home ownership rates are always (and for obvious reasons) higher than in younger age cohorts.
Research by Judy Yates of the University of NSW shows that home ownership rates among younger age groups declined dramatically between the 1991 and 2011 Censuses – from 56% to 47% among 25-34 year olds; from 75% to 64% among 35-44 year olds; from 81% to 73% among 45-54 year olds; and 84% to 79% among those over 55. In fact the only age cohort among whom home ownership rates didn’t decline over the past 20 years was 15-24 year olds: but that was only because their home ownership rate had already fallen 34% in 1961 to 24% by 1991 and didn’t decline any further.
The decline in home ownership rates among younger age groups is almost certainly due in part to changing preferences (including partnering and having children at older ages, and greater importance attached to proximity to employment or entertainment venues): but it also undoubtedly owes more to declining affordability.
This is also evident in the fact that home owners are taking longer to pay off their mortgages. According to the ABS’ just-released Survey of Housing Occupancy and Costs (ABS 2013b), only 45.8% of home-owning households owned their home outright in 2011-12, compared with 58.5% in 1994-95.
Chart 5: Home ownership rates by age cohort, 19961-2011
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This may be partly due to the fact that households can, and do, use mortgages for other purposes apart from simply acquiring the property which is mortgaged: but I think it is far more due to the fact that people need to borrow much more money initially in order to acquire a property now than they did 20 years ago.
So, when set against the stated objectives of the housing policies pursued by successive governments of various political persuasions, the results have been dismal.
Although most Australians are, as I noted at the beginning, physically well housed, it can no longer be said that we are, in general, affordably housed; nor can it be said that the ‘housing system’ is meeting the needs and aspirations of as large a proportion of Australians as it did a quarter of a century ago. And in making that assertion I am thinking of the extent to which the housing system meets the needs and aspirations of those who don’t want, or can’t and won’t ever be able to, become home-owners, as well as of those who do seek that status.
That is why I gave this talk the title, ‘Fifty Years of Failure’. In order to develop that proposition more fully, I want to turn now to two of the principal policies which governments of both persuasions have pursued throughout this period.

Assistance to first home buyers

It’s hard to think of any government policy that has been pursued for so long, in the face of such incontrovertible evidence that it doesn’t work, than the policy of giving cash to first home buyers in the belief that doing so will promote home ownership.
The Commonwealth Government started giving cash grants to first home buyers in 1964 when, at the urging of the New South Wales Division of the Young Liberal Movement (whose President at the time was a young John Howard), the Menzies Government began paying Home Savings Grants of up to $500 to ‘married or engaged couples under the age of 36’ on the basis of $1 for every $3 saved in an ‘approved form’ (generally, with a financial institution whose major business was lending for housing) in the three years prior to buying their first home, provided that the home was valued at no more than $14,000.
This scheme was abolished by the Whitlam Government in 1973 (in favour of an income tax deduction for mortgage interest payments by persons with a taxable income of less than $14,000 per annum); re-introduced under the name of Home Deposit Assistance Grants (without the age or marriage requirements and the value limits, and with a larger maximum grant of $2,500) by the Fraser Government in 1976; replaced by the Hawke Government in 1983 with the First Home Owners Assistance Scheme, initially with a maximum grant of $7,000 (later reduced to $6,000) and subject to an income test; abolished by the Hawke Government in 1990; and then re-introduced as the First Home Owners Grant (FHOG) by the Howard Government in 2000, without any income test or upper limit on the purchase price of homes acquired, ostensibly as ‘compensation’ for the introduction of the GST (even though the GST only applied to the purchase of new homes, and not to existing dwellings which the majority of first-time buyers purchase). In this guise it was really just the first of what became an explosion in ‘status-based welfare’ payments to selected groups irrespective of needs during that decade. On two occasions since 2000, the FHOG has been temporarily increased in response to an actual or feared slump in housing activity (and in 2008, in response to a feared decline in house prices).
Over the past decade, most State and Territory Governments have ‘topped up’ the basic FHOG payments to first-time buyers with grants from their own resources, with some States providing even larger grants to buyers meeting certain additional criteria (for example, the Victorian Government provided an additional $5,000 for buyers of new homes in rural and regional areas).
I estimate that the Commonwealth, State and Territory Governments spent a total of $22.5bn (in 2010-11 dollar values) on cash grants to first home buyers between 1964 and 2011.
Chart 6: Explosion in status based welfare
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State and Territory Government also provide indirect financial assistance to first-time buyers by partially or totally exempting them from the stamp duty they would otherwise pay on their purchases. In 2011-12 alone, these were worth around $3bn.
Chart 7: Spending on cash assistance to first home buyers, 1964-65 to 2011-12
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Governments have thus been providing cash handouts to first-time home-buyers for almost half a century. Yet, as I mentioned earlier, the overall home ownership rate has never been higher than it was at the 1961 Census, immediately before governments started going down this path; and among the age groups which are supposedly most intended to benefit from these handouts, home ownership rates have declined almost vertiginously over the past two decades.
And it’s pretty obvious why. Cash grants and other forms of assistance to first-time home buyers have served simply to exacerbate the already substantial imbalance between the underlying demand for housing and the supply of it.
In those circumstances, cash handouts for first home buyers have simply added to upward pressure on housing prices, enriching vendors (and making those who already housing feel richer) whilst doing precisely nothing to assist young people (or anybody else) into home ownership. For that reason, I often think that these grants should be called ‘Existing Home Vendors’ Grants’ – because that’s where the money ends up – rather than First Home Owners’ Grants.
Encouragingly, perhaps – after what in my case has been more than 30 years of putting this kind of argument – State and Territory Governments appear at last to have gotten this message. Over the past 18 months or so, every State and Territory Government has either abolished or at least substantially reduced grants to first home buyers who buy existing dwellings, whilst increasing their grants to those who buy new ones, with a net effect of reducing the total spend on assistance to first home buyers.
I have no doubt that some of the increased grants to first time buyers of new homes will end up boosting developers’ or builders’ profits: but I accept that at least some of it will induce a supply side response to any resulting increase in demand for new homes, while considerably fewer taxpayers’ dollars will be wasted inflating the prices of existing homes.

‘Negative gearing’

Another long-standing policy which I have long argued has not only failed to deliver on its oft-stated rationale of boosting the supply of housing – in this case for rent – but has actually exacerbated the mis-match between the demand for and the supply of housing, as well as having distorted the allocation of capital, and undermined the equity and integrity of the income tax system, is so-called ‘negative gearing’.
It is perhaps a telling indication of just how generous Australia’s tax system is to investors in this regard, compared with those of other countries, that one usually needs to explain to foreigners what the term ‘negative gearing’ actually means (see for example RBA 2003: 4045).
‘Negative gearing’ originally allowed taxpayers in effect to defer tax on their wage and salary income (until they sold the property or shares which they had acquired with borrowed money, on which they were paying more in interest than they received by way of dividends or rent). However, after the Howard Government’s 1999 decision to tax capital gains at half the rate applicable to other income (instead of taxing inflation-adjusted capital gains at a taxpayer’s full marginal rate), ‘negative gearing’ became a vehicle for permanently reducing, as well as deferring, personal tax liabilities. And the availability of depreciation on buildings adds to the way in which ‘negative gearing’ converts ordinary income taxable at full rates into capital gains taxable at half rates.
Chart 8: ‘Negative gearing’, 1993-94 to 2010-11
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It’s therefore hardly surprising that ‘negative gearing’ has become much more widespread over the past decade, and much more costly in terms of the revenue thereby foregone (see Chart 6 above).
In 1998-99, when capital gains were last taxed at the same rate as other types of income (less an allowance for inflation), Australia had 1.3 million tax-paying landlords who in total made a taxable profit of almost $700mn. By 2010-11, the latest year for which statistics are presently available, the number of tax-paying landlords had risen to over 1.8mn (or 14% of the total number of individual taxpayers), but they collectively lost more than $7.8bn, largely because the amount they paid out in interest rose more than fourfold (from just over $5bn to almost $23bn over this period), while the amount they collected in rent ‘only’ slightly less than trebled (from $11bn to $30bn), as did other (non-interest) expenses.
If all of the 1.2mn landlords who in total reported net losses in 2010-11 were in the 38% income tax bracket, their ability to offset those losses against their other taxable income would have cost over $5bn in revenue foregone; to the extent that some of them are in the top tax bracket then the revenue loss is obviously higher.
This is a pretty large subsidy from people who are working and saving to people who are borrowing and speculating (since those landlords who are making ‘running losses’ on their property investments expect to more than make up those losses through capital gains when they eventually sell them).
And it’s hard to think of any worthwhile public policy purpose which is served by it. It certainly does nothing to increase the supply of housing, since the vast majority of landlords buy established properties: 92% of all borrowing by residential property investors over the past decade has been for the purchase of established dwellings, as against about 72% of all borrowing by owner-occupiers.
Precisely for that reason, the availability of ‘negative gearing’ contributes to upward pressure on the prices of established dwellings, and thus diminishes housing affordability for would-be home buyers.
Supporters of ‘negative gearing’ argue that its abolition would lead to a ‘landlord’s strike’, driving up rents and exacerbating the existing shortage of affordable rental housing. They repeatedly point to what they allege happened when the Hawke Government abolished negative gearing (only for property investment) in 1986 – that it ‘led’ (so they say) to a surge in rents, which prompted the reintroduction of ‘negative gearing’ in 1988.
This assertion is actually not true. If the abolition of ‘negative gearing’ had led to a ‘landlord’s strike’, as proponents of ‘negative gearing’ repeatedly assert, then rents should have risen everywhere (since ‘negative gearing’ had been available everywhere). In fact, rents (as measured in the consumer price index) only rose rapidly (at double-digit rates) in Sydney and Perth – and that was because in those two cities, rental vacancy rates were unusually low (in Sydney’s case, barely above 1%) before negative gearing was abolished. In other State capitals (where vacancy rates were higher), growth in rentals was either unchanged or, in Melbourne, actually slowed (see Chart 7).
Chart 9: Rents and vacancy rates in the mid-1980s
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However, notwithstanding this history, suppose that a large number of landlords were to respond to the abolition of ‘negative gearing’ by selling their properties. That would push down the prices of investment properties, making them more affordable to would-be home buyers, allowing more of them to become home-owners, and thereby reducing the demand for rental properties in almost exactly the same proportion as the reduction in the supply of them. It’s actually quite difficult to think of anything that would do more to improve affordability conditions for would-be homebuyers than the abolition of ‘negative gearing’.
There’s no evidence to support the assertion made by proponents of the continued existence of ‘negative gearing’ that it results in more rental housing being available than would be the case were it to be abolished (even though the Henry Review appears to have swallowed this assertion).
Most other ‘advanced’ economies don’t have ‘negative gearing’: yet most other countries have higher rental vacancy rates than Australia does.
Chart 10: Rental vacancy rates in Australia and the United States
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In the United States, which hasn’t allow ‘negative gearing’ since the mid-1980s, the rental vacancy rate has in the last 50 years only once been below 5% (and that was in the March quarter of 1979); in the ten years prior to the onset of the most recent recession, it has averaged 9.1% (see Chart 8 above).
Yet here in Australia, which does allow ‘negative gearing’, the rental vacancy rate has never (at least in the last 30 years) been above 5%, and in the period since ‘negative gearing’ became more attractive (as a result of the halving of the capital gains tax rate) has fallen from over 3% to less than 2%.
During that same period, rents rose at rate 0.8 percentage points per annum faster than the CPI as a whole; whereas over the preceding decade, rents rose at exactly the same rate as the CPI.
Similarly, countries which have never had ‘negative gearing’ – such as Germany, France, the Netherlands, the Nordic countries and (low-tax) Switzerland – have much larger private rental markets than Australia.
Some supporters of negative gearing also argue that since businesses can deduct all of the operating expenses they incur (including interest) against their profits in order to determine their taxable income, and can also ‘carry forward’ net losses incurred in any given year against profits earned in subsequent years so as to reduce the tax otherwise payable, it is only ‘fair and reasonable’ that investors should be able to do the same.
There are two flaws in this argument, in my view. First, a large part of the appeal of ‘negative gearing’ comes from the way in which it allows income which would otherwise have been taxed at the investor’s marginal rate effectively to be converted into capital gains, which are taxed at half the investor’s marginal rate. Businesses – if they are incorporated, as most businesses these days are – can’t do that. Companies aren’t eligible for the 50% discount on tax payable on gains on assets held for more than one year.
Second, while individuals are allowed to deduct expenses incurred in connection with producing investment income from their taxable income, they aren’t allowed to deduct many types of expenses incurred in producing wage and salary income.
To take an obvious example, wage and salary earners aren’t allowed to deduct the cost of travelling to and from work; nor are they allowed to deduct child care expenses.
Or, to take another example which may be an even closer analogy with ‘negative gearing’ for investment purposes, individuals aren’t allowed to deduct interest on borrowings undertaken to finance their own education as a tax deduction, even though that additional education may contribute materially to enhancing their future earnings – and even though any such additional future earnings will be taxed at that individual’s full marginal rate, as opposed to half that rate in the case of capital gains on an investment asset.
Let me be clear that I’m not advocating that ‘negative gearing’ be abolished for property investments only, as happened between 1986 and 1988. That would be unfair to property investors.
Personally, I think ‘negative gearing’ should be abolished for all investors, so that interest expenses would only be deductible in any given year up to the amount of investment income earned in that year, with any excess ‘carried forward’ against the ultimate capital gains tax liability, rather than being used to reduce the tax payable on wage and salary or other income (as is the case in the United States and most other ‘advanced’ economies).
But I’d settle for the recommendation of the Henry Review (2009, Volume 1: 72-75), which was that only 40% of interest (and other expenses) associated with investments be allowed as a deduction, and that capital gains (and other forms of investment income, including interest on deposits) be taxed at 60% (rather than 50% as at present) of the rates applicable to the same amounts of wage and salary income.
This recommendation would not amount to the abolition of ‘negative gearing’; it would just make it less generous than it is at the moment. It would be likely, as the Henry Review suggested, ‘to change investor demand toward housing with higher rental yields and longer investment horizons [and] may result in a more stable housing market, as the current incentive for investors to chase large capital gains in housing would be reduced’.
I could even accept the Henry Review’s recommendation that “these reforms should only be adopted following reforms to the supply of housing and reforms to housing assistance’ which it makes elsewhere, even though I disagree with the Henry Review’s concern that these reforms ‘may in the short term reduce residential property investment’.
I could also accept, grudgingly, that any of these changes could be ‘grandfathered’, in order to minimize opposition from those who already have negatively geared investments, and who would understandably see the modification or removal of ‘negative gearing’ without such a provision as directly disadvantageous to them.
However, the alacrity with which both major political parties moved to distance themselves from even these modest proposals in the Henry Review when it finally saw the light of day a few days before the 2009 Budget doesn’t provide much grounds for hope in that regard.

What could be done instead?

I’ve argued that two of the principal long-standing government interventions in the housing market – cash assistance to first-time home buyers and ‘negative gearing’ – have not only failed to achieve their stated objectives, but have actually exacerbated the difficulties facing those whom these interventions are supposed to assist:
  • they have served to inflate the demand for housing – and in particular, the demand for already-existing housing – whilst doing next to nothing to increase the supply of housing.
  • they have therefore made housing affordability worse, not better.
  • and to the extent that the ownership of residential real estate is concentrated among higher income groups – 36% of all property owned by individuals, and 47% of all property other than owner-occupied dwellings, is owned by households in the top 20% of the income distribution (ABS 2013c) – they exacerbate inequities in the distribution of income and wealth.
In passing, it is perhaps worth wondering why successive governments of various political persuasions have been so unwilling to alter policies which have not merely failed so abjectly to meet their stated objectives, but have demonstrably had such an adverse impact on those whom successive governments repeatedly assert they are keen to assist.
At the risk of appearing cynical – not that, in my experience, being cynical about the motivations of political parties and governments carries a serious risk of leading one into making erroneous predictions about what they might be– I think the answer is obvious. While political parties and governments profess to care about first home buyers, the reality is that in a typical year fewer than 100,000 people succeed in attaining home ownership for the first time; whereas there are some 5.8 million households (and over 8 million people) who already own at least one property. Hence there are 100,000 votes for policies which might result in lower house prices, and over 8 million votes against policies which might result in lower house prices (or in favour of policies which result in higher house prices). As the Americans say: ‘do the math’.
John Howard – who could ‘do the math’ better than most – often used to say that no-one ever came up to him complaining about the increase in the value of their home, or asking him to do things that would reduce the value of their homes so that younger people could buy them more readily.
Nonetheless, if by some chance a political party really did want to advocate and implement policies that really would stand some chance of improving the capacity of the Australian housing system to respond to the needs and aspirations of Australian citizens, what might they say?
The fundamental change that such a set of policies might embody would be a switch from policies which inflate the demand for housing to policies which boost the supply of housing. Such a suite of policies might include some or all of the following:
  • first, the abolition of all existing policies which serve only to increase the prices of existing dwellings, such as cash grants to and stamp duty exemptions for first time buyers, and ‘negative gearing’ for investors (in all assets, not just property, and if politically necessary, only for assets acquired after the date on which such a policy was announced);
  • second, the redirection of the funds thereby saved (and/or the additional revenue raised) towards programs that increase the supply of housing – for example, by directly funding the construction of new dwellings (as the Rudd Government did as part of its response to the global financial crisis), or by providing some combination of grants, loans or tax incentives to induce private sector developers to increase the proportion of ‘affordable’ dwellings within their developments, whether for sale or rental;
  • third, expanding or replicating programs like Western Australia’s ‘Keystart’ scheme which assist eligible people to become home owners on a ‘shared equity’ basis, with eligibility being subject to a means test, and which creates a ‘revolving fund’ as the ‘shared equity’ is returned to the State Government upon sale;
  • fourth, changes to the way in which State and Territory Governments tax holdings of and transactions in land, with a view to encouraging more efficient use of it. That would include replacing stamp duty on land transfers (which are ‘bad’ taxes on many grounds, including that they discourage people from changing their dwellings as their needs change) with more broadly-based land taxes (ie, no exemptions for owner-occupiers, but with appropriate transitional provisions) and possibly higher rates for undeveloped vacant land in established urban areas;
  • fifth, taking a more ‘holistic’ view of urban infrastructure investment, by recognizing that it has an important housing dimension – that is, that public (or private) investment in transport infrastructure (both public transport and roads) can make a tangible contribution towards improving housing supply and affordability by making ‘greenfields’ developments more accessible to both buyers and renters – and considering funding such infrastructure by levies on the increments to the value of the land which result from such investments (as for example with the levy that funded the Melbourne Underground Rail Loop Authority in the 1970s and early 1980s);
  • sixth, revisiting current models for financing the provision of infrastructure and services in ‘greenfields’ housing estates with a view to reducing the extent to which these are funded by ‘upfront’ charges (something which could be assisted by changes to the land tax regime which I mentioned a moment ago); and
  • seventh, reducing the cost, complexity and regulatory uncertainty associated with ‘brownfields’ and ‘infill’ developments in established areas – which doesn’t have to mean traducing the property rights of other property owners, but which should mean clearer and more uniform planning rules, with fewer opportunities for frivolous or vexatious objections and appeals.
  • Note that I am not advocating something that is often widely assumed to find favour with economists – namely, the removal of the exemption of owner-occupied housing from capital gains tax. I don’t favour that, because consistency with other parts of the tax system would require that mortgage interest payments be deductible. That would in turn almost certainly encourage people to take on more debt, and would thus inflate the demand for housing, putting further upward pressure on prices. And it could well end up being revenue negative.
Sadly, however, the political calculus to which I referred earlier means that there is probably less chance of any of these proposals being taken up – let alone all of them – than there is of Andrew Demetriou calling a press conference to announce that Tasmania really should have its own team in the Australian Football League. Politics – more than any other single factor – means that Australians are likely to have to live with a dysfunctional housing system for a long time yet to come.