Wednesday, December 21, 2011

REIWA - Mouthpiece Confirms Perth House Prices falling at $2300 Per week.

As most readers would know I often comment on Perth Now property page. Recently I said the following:

(See link Comment # 11: )

I assert the following in the above posting on Perth Now:

1)That REIWA Says Perth Prices are falling at $2.300 per week
2) That REIWA Says prices will keep falling till the middle of 2012.

REIWA "Communications Director"  (Just a Glorified Mouthpiece)
took exception to what I had to say & posted the following in comment #42

REIWA assert the following in the above Posting on Perth Now 

1) That REIWA does "not" say house  prices are falling at $2,300 per week.& That it simply isn't true.
2) That Indications are that the median has bottomed.
3) That REIWA anticipates a flat 2012.

So I guess the ball is now in my court to prove my credibility so here we go:

Are prices falling at $2300 per week & did REIWA say this. 

Yes to both look at the extract below from a REIWA publication 
It clearly states that June 2011 Qtr Median house Price was $480K & the Sept 2011 Median Price was $450K a drop of $30K divided by 13 weeks in the Sept 2011 Qtr gives you prices falling at $2,307.69 per week. Sept Qtr is the latest official data published by REIWA.
This data says that what I say is 100% accurate Perth house prices are falling at $2,307.69 per week & it is REIWA's own data so in fact REIWA are saying it with their own data.


REIWA then makes the assertion that indications are that the Median has Bottomed:

The extract below from Landgate (22-12-1011) currently shows that Median prices fell further in October 2011 contradicting REIWA's assertion that prices have "BOTTOMED"  in fact Median prices fell further. So I put this up as proof REIWA are wrong when they say "Prices Have Bottomed" they clearly have not since putting out their Sept Otr 2011prices fell a 5% in JUST ONE MONTH!! it fell 6.3% in Sept Qtr thats 3 months & indicative data from Landgate says it fell a FURTHER 5% in ONE MONTH!!! how do you get "BOTTOMED" from that?

(Important to note LANDGATE data for Oct is indicative it may show greater falls or perhaps a recovery in prices. Although by now 6 weeks out this number is expected to remain at this rate. The November data is really raw showing a increase in Median which I expect to fall? Time will tell. I will update this chart in a few weeks shown outcomes) 

 Their "Communications Mouthpiece" then goes on to say that "REIWA Anticipates a FLAT 2012"
The problem is the President of REIWA is on record saying  prices will continue to fall for 6 months before recovering mid year. That is not indicative of a "Flat 2012" but a "FALLING 2012" Also have a look at the comment by ANZ Property forecaster in the same article he expects Perth prices to drop to $420,000. He is not that far out because if you look at the previous LANDGATE Data above for Oct 2011 it is already at $425,000. 

As always there is a link for you to check for yourself: 

 So there you go REIWA are wrong 
A) Prices are falling at $2300 per week, 
B) It is True no lies they RIEWA did say what I claimed they said it is there in Black & white in their own data.
C) There are no indications prices have bottomed in fact the opposite is the case with LANDGATE showing further falls.
D) REIWA don't anticipate a "FLAT 2102" their own President is on record saying prices will fall for the first 6 months of 2012 at the very least. ( HELLO 6 months is half of 2012 how can you possibly get "FLAT 2012 from that)

REIWA Communications Manager - Mr Brian Greig or "Director of Communications" as he like like to call himself  might like to grab a BIG BOX of These & he is going to need a lot of the stuff to get through 2012.

Remember you can Put Lipstick on a Pig but it's still a Pig!

 See Chart below of US House Prices & their rate of decline. US House prices peaked Early 2005 & their house prices started to decline from rates of growth around 17% PA By 2006 their rate of growth had declined to 15% when prices started to fall in earnest. It took almost 2 years for price falls to reach a rate of decline around 10% PA. 

So US house prices reach a peak around 2005 had a period of flat prices then reached price falls of 10% 3 years later. Perth House prices reached their peaks in March 2010 According to REIWA & it has taken just 18 months to reach a rate of decline approaching 10%.

If you look at the US Housing chart below it took 2 years for them to reach a 10% rate of decline. Perth has done it in 18 months we are falling at a faster rate than the US did.

Note: The GFC did not cause US prices to decline they were falling for 2-3 years prior to the GFC. Pretty much the same as here in Australia. We are not in a recession far from it here in WA yet our housing markets are imploding. 

Anyone like to have some fun with REIWA?
Go to their FACEBOOK page & comment on this post & put a link to it as well & watch in 3 minutes it will be removed.

Lets make this REIWA Mouthpiece spend his Xmass break 24/7 looking for the "Dave's" of this world on his Facebook page. Together we can make it a Very Merry Merry Christmas!!

Well done Dave  next time your in Perth I owe you a Lap Dance ':-)


  1. Nice!

    Just proves that anyone can get a job in real estate, or the real estate representative body.

    Laugh Out Loud!

    Wonder what they will day next?

  2. Not Fooled, I think it is a bit premature to use the September landgate data. For one thing it would encourage spruikers to use the 50 properties counted so far for November to "prove" the next boom is upon us! Also REIWA use quarterly figures rather than monthly ones, which is one reason why their chart shows a steady decline from March 2010 to September 2011, whilst the landgate figures show a couple of upward blips. I do believe we are in the midst of a housing bubble, and that it is unsustainable. But let's not exaggerate the way that Mike does!